Risk prediction of coal and gas outburst
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摘要: 针对现有基于支持向量机(SVM)的煤与瓦斯突出预测方法存在准确率低与响应速度慢的问题，提出了一种基于改进灰狼算法(IGWO)优化SVM的煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测方法。采用灰色关联熵权法分析各个影响因素对煤与瓦斯突出的影响程度，根据关联度排序提取瓦斯压力、瓦斯含量、瓦斯放散初速度和开采深度作为煤与瓦斯突出主控因素，将其分为训练集和测试集，并进行归一化处理；为改善传统灰狼算法（GWO）种群易陷入局部最优和寻优速度慢的缺陷，引入越界处理机制和嵌入莱维飞行的随机差分变异策略对GWO算法进行改进（即IGWO），有效提升了GWO的收敛精度与速度；采用IGWO对SVM的核心参数和惩罚参数进行优化，将煤与瓦斯突出的主控因素输入到IGWO−SVM中进行分类，并将其与实际测试集分类结果进行对比，实现煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测。仿真结果表明：与基于鲸鱼算法−支持向量机(WOA−SVM)、灰狼算法−支持向量机(GWO−SVM)和粒子群−支持向量机(PSO−SVM)的预测方法相比，基于IGWO−SVM的预测方法具有更高的预测精度，在提高SVM运算效率的同时满足煤与瓦斯突出预测的精度和可靠性要求，准确率达到96.67%，预测速度为5.58 s。Abstract: In order to solve the problems of low accuracy and slow response speed of existing support vector machine (SVM)-based coal and gas outburst prediction methods, a risk prediction method of coal and gas outburst based on improved grey wolf optimizer (IGWO) optimized SVM is proposed. The influence degree of each influencing factor on coal and gas outburst is analyzed by using the grey relational entropy weight method, and gas pressure, gas content, initial gas diffusion speed and mining depth are extracted as main control factors of coal and gas outburst according to the correlation degree order, and the main control factors are divided into a training set and a test set, and normalized. In order to improve the defects of the traditional grey wolf optimizer (GWO) population easily falling into local optimum and slow optimization speed, the out-of-bounds processing mechanism and the random difference mutation strategy embedded in Levy flight are introduced to improve the grey wolf optimizer (ie IGWO), so as to improve the convergence precision and speed of GWO effectively. The core parameters and penalty parameters of SVM are optimized by IGWO, and the main control factors of coal and gas outburst are input into IGWO-SVM for classification. And the classification results are compared with the actual test set so as to realize the risk prediction of coal and gas outburst. The simulation results show that compared with the prediction methods based on whale optimization algorithm-SVM ( WOA-SVM), grey wolf optimizer-SVM ( GWO-SVM) and particle swarm optimization-SVM ( PSO-SVM), the prediction method based on IGWO-SVM has higher prediction precision, and can meet the precision and reliability requirements of coal and gas outburst prediction while improving the operation efficiency of SVM. The accuracy rate reaches 96.67% and the prediction speed is 5.58 s.
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表 1 部分样本数据
Table 1 Part of sample data
序号 G1/MPa ${G_2}/({{\rm{m}}^3} \cdot {{\rm{t}}^{ - 1} })$ G3/mmHg G4 G5 G6/ｍ 突出危险性 1 0.451 9.639 18.407 0.491 Ⅰ 556.884 1 2 0.461 9.131 18.039 0.499 Ⅲ 535.376 2 3 0.730 12.230 18.485 0.463 Ⅰ 546.180 1 4 2.302 17.366 18.918 0.381 Ⅱ 557.050 3 5 0.670 9.690 12.836 0.582 Ⅱ 499.971 2 86 0.797 9.797 17.078 0.488 Ⅱ 482.869 1 87 1.282 12.095 9.079 0.612 Ⅱ 613.958 2 88 1.187 12.291 18.703 0.408 Ⅲ 605.029 2 89 0.806 12.148 19.909 0.498 Ⅰ 565.645 2 90 2.197 16.776 19.019 0.378 Ⅲ 556.155 3 
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表 2 灰色关联度
Table 2 Grey relation degree
影响因素 平均灰色关联度 加权灰色关联度 关联度顺序 G1 0.709 3 0.149 1 3 G2 0.673 2 0.138 5 4 G3 0.711 5 0.150 6 2 G4 0.620 9 0.119 4 6 G5 0.654 4 0.130 6 5 G6 0.714 2 0.152 9 1
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