基于云模型和D—S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价

于丽雅, 赵永芳, 张凌云, 陈光波

于丽雅，赵永芳，张凌云，等.基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价［J］.工矿自动化，2020,46（11）：106 -112.. DOI: 10.13272/j.issn.1671 -251x.2020040029
引用本文: 于丽雅，赵永芳，张凌云，等.基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价［J］.工矿自动化，2020,46（11）：106 -112.. DOI: 10.13272/j.issn.1671 -251x.2020040029
shu
YU Liya, ZHAO Yongfang, ZHANG Lingyun, CHEN Guangbo. Coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D -S theory[J]. Journal of Mine Automation, 2020, 46(11): 106-112. DOI: 10.13272/j.issn.1671 -251x.2020040029
Citation: YU Liya, ZHAO Yongfang, ZHANG Lingyun, CHEN Guangbo. Coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D -S theory[J]. Journal of Mine Automation, 2020, 46(11): 106-112. DOI: 10.13272/j.issn.1671 -251x.2020040029
shu

基于云模型和D—S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价

  • 1.

    山西能源学院 安全工程系， 山西 榆次030600

  • 2.

    山西能源学院 矿业工程系， 山西 榆次030600

  • 3.

    内蒙古科技大学 矿业研究院， 内蒙古 包头014010

基金项目: 

山西省青年科技研究基金项目（201801D221356）

内蒙古科技大学创新基金项目（2019QDL -B33）

详细信息

  • 中图分类号: TD713

Coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D -S theory

  • 1.

    Safety Engineering Department, Shanxi Institute of Energy, Yuci 030600, China

  • 2.

    Mining Engineering Department, Shanxi Institute of Energy, Yuci 030600, China

  • 3.

    Mining Research Institute, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou 014010, China

摘要

    摘要
  • 摘要: 针对现有煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价模型或方法难以兼顾评价指标的不确定性和模糊性、指标权重不合理等问题，构建了以煤层物理特性等4类因素为二级指标、以煤体瓦斯放散指标等24个因素为三级指标的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价指标体系，提出了基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价模型。通过云模型正向云发生器实现评价指标由定性到定量的转换，通过D-S理论的证据合成规则消除评价指标之间的冲突性，确定合理的指标权重。工程应用结果表明，基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价结果符合工程实际，准确度较高。
    Abstract: In view of problems of existing coal and gas outburst risk evaluation models or methods that it is difficult to take into account the uncertainty and ambiguity of evaluation indicators, and the index weights are unreasonable, coal and gas outburst risk evaluation index system is constructed which takes 4 types of factors including coal seam physical properties as secondary indicators, and takes 24 factors including gas emission indicators as three -level indicators. Coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D -S theory was proposed. Evaluation index is converted from qualitative to quantitative through forward cloud generator of cloud model, and the conflict between evaluation indexes is eliminated through evidence synthesis rule of D -S theory to determine reasonable index weights. Engineering application results show that the evaluation results of the coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D -S theory are in line with engineering reality and have high accuracy.
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出版历程
  • 刊出日期:  2020-11-19

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