短期风速多步预测的研究
Research of Multi-step Forecasting for Short-term Wind Speed
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摘要: 为了提高风电场短期风速预测的精确度以及预测尺度,提出了一种将小波分解法、经验模式分解法及最小二乘支持向量机相结合对风速时间序列进行短期多步预测建模的方法。该方法采用小波分解法对风速信号进行分解,使之分解成不同频带的高频和低频分量;再利用最小二乘支持向量机对各分量建立预测模型,将各预测模型的预测值叠加可得到模型的预测结果。该模型称为预测模型Ⅰ。其次,将预测模型I的预测结果设为训练样本,采用经验模式分解法把训练样本集分解成若干本征模式分量和趋势项;再利用最小二乘支持向量机对各本征模式分量和趋势项建立预测模型,同时扩大模型的预测尺度;将各预测模型的预测值叠加可得该模型的预测结果。该模型称为预测模型Ⅱ。最后,将预测模型Ⅱ、Ⅰ的预测值叠加得到最终预测结果。实验结果表明,采用该方法预测的风电场短期风速的RMSE值为0.153,验证了该方法的有效性。Abstract: In order to improve forecasting precision and forecasting scale of short-term wind speed of wind farm, a short-term multi-step forecasting molding method for time sequence of wide speed combining with wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition and least square support vector machine was proposed. The method uses wavelet transform to decompose wind speed data which can be decomposed into high-frequency and low-frequency components, uses least square support vector machine to construct forecasting models relevant to the components, then adds forecasting values of the models to obtain forecasting result which is called result of model I. Secondly, the method considers forecasting result of model I as training sample, and uses empirical mode decomposition to decompose the training sample into several intrinsic mode functions and trend term. Then it uses least square support vector machine to build forecasting models for each intrinsic mode functions and trend term, meanwhile extends forecasting scale of the models, and adds forecasting values of the models to obtain forecasting result which is called result of model II. Finally, it adds forecasting results of model I and model II to obtain forecasting result. The experiment result showed that the value of RMSE is 0.153 and proved the effectiveness of the method.