一种矿用电缆剩余寿命预测方法

A residual life prediction method of mine-used cable

  • 摘要: 针对现有矿用电缆剩余寿命预测方法建模繁琐、失效数据采集困难、预测精度低等问题,提出了一种基于灰色预测和多尺度量子谐振子优化算法的矿用电缆剩余寿命预测方法。首先采集电缆加速湿热老化试验中不同温度下的介质损耗因数和老化时间;然后采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,以介质损耗因数为5%作为电缆寿命终点的判据,根据采集数据建立矿用电缆剩余寿命预测模型;最后采用多尺度量子谐振子优化算法对GM(1,1)模型参数进行优化,以提高模型的预测精度。试验结果表明,基于灰色预测和多尺度量子谐振子优化算法的矿用电缆剩余寿命预测方法试验时长短,具有较高的准确度。

     

    Abstract: For problems of complex modeling, difficult invalid data collection and low prediction precision of existing residual life prediction methods of mine-used cable, a residual life prediction method of mine-used cable was proposed which was based on gray prediction and multi-scale quantum harmonic oscillator algorithm(MQHOA). Dielectric dissipation factors and aging time under different temperature are collected firstly in accelerated hygrothermal aging test. Then residual life prediction model of mine-used cable is established by use of gray prediction GM(1,1) model and the collected data, which takes dielectric dissipation factor of 5% as ending criterion of cable life. Finally, MQHOA is used to optimize parameter of the GM(1,1) model to improve prediction precision. The test result shows that the method has short test time and higher correctness.

     

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