基于防突预测特征的地质异常智能判识方法

Geological anomaly intelligent identification method based on coal and gas outburst prediction characteristics

  • 摘要: 针对煤矿现有物探、钻探手段超前探测小型地质构造和煤层赋存变化等地质异常效果不好,以及防突预测数据隐含信息发掘不够、利用不足等问题,提出了根据防突预测特征与地质异常之间的相关性进行地质异常智能判识的思路;从单次防突预测事件数据分布和前后连续防突预测事件数据变化2个层面,构建了10个防突预测特征指标,形成了防突预测特征指标体系;采用关联分析方法,提出了基于防突预测特征的地质异常智能判识方法,并对特征指标二元属性转换、关联规则分析、有效规则提取、判识准则建立、地质异常可能性等级划分等关键环节进行了重点阐述;采用B/S架构,设计、开发了基于防突预测特征的地质异常智能判识系统,实现了防突预测信息在线采集、防突预测特征自动分析、地质异常超前动态判识,以及判识结果网站和移动终端等多渠道联动发布。现场试验结果表明,该系统能够自主构建地质异常判识准则,地质异常判识总准确率达到了87.63%,为煤矿超前掌握地质异常提供了有效手段,实现了防突预测数据隐含价值的拓展应用。

     

    Abstract: In view of problems that existing geophysical prospecting and drilling methods of coal mine are not effective in advanced detecting of geological anomalies such as small geological structures and coal seam occurrence changes, as well as insufficient exploration and utilization of hidden information in outburst prevention and prediction data, the idea of geological anomaly intelligent identification according to association between outburst prediction characteristics and geological anomalies is put forward. From data distribution of a single coal and gas outburst prediction event and the data change of several consecutive coal and gas outburst prediction events, 10 indexes of outburst prediction characteristic are constructed, forming the coal and gas outburst prediction characteristic index system. Applying the method of association analysis, a method of geological anomaly intelligent identification based on coal and gas outburst prediction characteristics is proposed, and the key technologies are emphasized, such as binary attribute transformation of characteristic index, association rule analysis, effective rule extraction, identification criteria establishment and geological anomaly possibility levels classification. A geological anomaly intelligent identification system based on coal and gas outburst prediction characteristics is designed and devoloped using B/S structure, which achieves online collection of outburst prediction information, automatic analysis of outburst prediction characteristics, advanced dynamic identification of geological anomaly, and joint distribution of identification result via multi-channel of website and mobile terminal. The field test results show that the system can independently construct the geological anomaly identification criteria, and the total accuracy rate of geological anomaly identification reaches 87.63%, which provides an effective means for the coal mine to grasp the geological anomaly in advance, and realizes extended application of hidden value of the outburst prediction data.

     

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