Price model of port steam coal

An econometric model was established to study factors from five aspects of substitution, demand, supply, inventory, and inertia which will affect Chinese port steam coal price. Via monthly data from January 2005 to June 2012, the model disclosed quantitative effects of the proposed factors, and pointed out that the last-month steam coal price, coal production cost and coal inventories at ports are the most significant factors. Considering fluctuated coal market and notable seasonality of coal demand in the recent years, effects of the factors on the port steam coal prices were compared before and after the international financial crisis of 2008, and a method to divide coal demand into slack-season and boom-season was proposed in terms of the periodicity of railway freight turnover, so as to disclose differential effects of the factors on the steam coal price between the both categories and change of the difference before and after the financial crisis. At the end, empirical results were further analyzed associated macroeconomic trend, evolution of coal market powers and behavioral economic perspectives, and informative managerial insights were discussed.