基于时空和气象因素的露天矿车辆运行速度特征与预测研究

Research on characteristics and prediction of vehicle speed in open-pit mines based on spatiotemporal and meteorological factors

  • 摘要: 现有露天矿车辆运行速度预测模型未充分考虑气象因素对速度的影响,数据样本集难以支撑深度学习模型的自学习与模型调优,未根据天气状况进行生产计划并动态调整出动设备数量,使得运输环节中大量设备冗余,未达到露天矿精细化管理目标。针对该问题,提出了基于时空和气象因素的车辆速度特征分析方法和速度预测模型。采用聚类分析、相关性分析等方法,得到车辆在不同气象和时空条件下的速度特征;融合道路位置、运行时段、气象等因素,推导得出不同时刻下无降水、小雨、中雨、大雨、降雪条件下的平路、上坡、转弯、下坡场景下的露天矿车辆速度预测模型;根据道路摩擦因数、驾驶员反应时间、车辆制动距离等参数构建车辆安全行驶速度模型,得出不同时空场景下的车辆安全行驶速度。分析结果表明:① 空车速度均值大于重车,在转弯、下坡路段空车与重车速度均值相差较大,而在平路、上坡路段空车与重车速度均值相差较小。② 车辆运行速度与降水量负相关,与道路结构和时间分布强相关。③ 车辆速度预测模型平均相对误差在3%以内,平均绝对误差在0.4 km/h以内,均方根误差小于3 km/h,预测效果较好。

     

    Abstract: Existing prediction models for vehicle speed in open-pit mines do not fully consider the influence of meteorological factors on operating speed. The data sample sets are insufficient to train or fine-tune deep learning models. Production planning and dynamic adjustment of the number of dispatched equipment according to weather conditions have not been implemented, resulting in substantial redundancy of equipment in the transportation process and failing to achieve the goal of refined management in open-pit mines. To address this issue, this study proposed a vehicle speed characteristic analysis method and a speed prediction model based on spatiotemporal and meteorological factors. Clustering analysis and correlation analysis were used to obtain the speed characteristics of vehicles under different meteorological and spatiotemporal conditions. By integrating factors such as road location, operating period, and meteorological conditions, a prediction model for vehicle speed in open-pit mines was derived for scenarios including straight roads, uphill sections, turns, and downhill sections under no-precipitation, light-rain, moderate-rain, heavy-rain, and snowfall conditions. A model for safe vehicle speed was constructed based on parameters such as road friction coefficient, driver reaction time, and vehicle braking distance, yielding the safe operating speeds for vehicles in different spatiotemporal scenarios. The analysis results showed that: ① the average speed of empty vehicles was higher than that of loaded vehicles; the difference in average speed between empty and loaded vehicles was significant in turns and downhill sections, while it was relatively small in straight and uphill sections. ② Vehicle speed was negatively correlated with precipitation and strongly correlated with road structure and temporal distribution. ③ The speed prediction model achieved a mean absolute percentage error ≤ 3%, a mean absolute error ≤ 0.4 km/h, and a root mean square error <3 km/h, demonstrating good predictive performance.

     

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