基于UK-EVF耦合算法的煤矿瓦斯含量分布场 预测及重构研究

Research on Prediction and Reconstruction of Gas Content Distribution Field in Coal Mines Based on UK-EVF Coupling Algorithm

  • 摘要: 针对计算资源有限场景中矿井瓦斯含量分布场精确重构的技术难题,本文提出一种泛克里金插值(UK)与经验变差函数(EVF)的耦合算法(UK-EVF),旨在以轻量化计算实现高精度的瓦斯含量空间分布表征,为煤矿瓦斯治理提供技术支撑。具体研究过程如下:首先,通过现场实测采集工作面不同位置的瓦斯含量数据,构建涵盖空间坐标与对应瓦斯含量的实测数据集;其次,利用 EVF 算法对瓦斯含量分布场的空间结构特征进行定量分析,精准提取变程、块金效应、基台值等关键空间相关性参数,为后续插值预测奠定结构基础;在此前提下,引入 UK 算法,以 EVF 获取的空间参数为约束,结合已采集样本点的瓦斯含量实测值,对未采样区域的瓦斯含量进行空间插值预测,最终实现全工作面瓦斯含量分布场重构。为验证算法性能,本文选取4种经典空间插值算法与5种主流机器学习及神经网络模型作为对比,以平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、决定系数(R2)为核心评估指标,从预测精度与计算复杂度两方面展开综合分析。研究结果表明:在小样本、低算力场景下,空间插值类算法的核心优势在于“无需复杂参数训练,可直接依托空间数据近邻相似的固有规律建模”,即使样本量有限仍能保障基础预测精度;而本文提出的 UK-EVF 耦合算法在所有对比算法中表现最优,不仅计算资源消耗低、响应速度快,分布场重构运行耗时不超过 10 秒,完全适配计算资源有限的现场场景;更实现了高精度重构,瓦斯含量预测结果的平均相对误差绝对值稳定控制在5.1% 以内,满足现场对数据准确性的严苛要求。该算法可有效为煤矿瓦斯抽采钻孔布置优化、瓦斯涌出量动态预测等瓦斯治理关键环节提供精准的空间分布数据支持,具备显著的现场应用价值。

     

    Abstract: In response to the technical challenge of accurately reconstructing the distribution field of mine gas content in scenarios with limited computing resources, this paper proposes a coupled algorithm of universal kriging interpolation (UK) and empirical variation function (EVF) (UK-EVF), aiming to achieve high-precision spatial distribution representation of gas content through lightweight computing, and provide technical support for coal mine gas control. The specific research process is as follows: Firstly, gas content data from different positions of the working face are collected through on-site measurements, and a measured dataset covering spatial coordinates and corresponding gas content is constructed; Secondly, the EVF algorithm is used to quantitatively analyze the spatial structural characteristics of the gas content distribution field, accurately extracting key spatial correlation parameters such as range, nugget effect, and baseline value, laying a structural foundation for subsequent interpolation prediction; Under this premise, the UK algorithm is introduced, with the spatial parameters obtained by EVF as constraints, combined with the measured gas content of the collected sample points, to perform spatial interpolation prediction on the gas content of the unsampled area, ultimately achieving a complete reconstruction of the gas content distribution field of the entire working face. To verify the performance of the algorithm, this paper selects four classic spatial interpolation algorithms and five mainstream machine learning and neural network models as comparisons. The core evaluation indicators are mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R 2), and a comprehensive analysis is conducted from two aspects: prediction accuracy and computational complexity. The research results indicate that in small sample scenarios, the core advantage of spatial interpolation algorithms is that they "do not require complex parameter training and can directly rely on the inherent laws of spatial data nearest neighbor similarity for modeling", which can ensure basic prediction accuracy even with limited sample sizes; The UK-EVF coupling algorithm proposed in this article performs the best among all compared algorithms, with low computational resource consumption, fast response speed, and distribution field reconstruction running time not exceeding 10 seconds, fully adapting to on-site scenarios with limited computing resources; High precision reconstruction has been achieved, and the average relative error absolute value of gas content prediction results is stably controlled within 5%, meeting the strict requirements for data accuracy on site. This algorithm can effectively provide accurate spatial distribution data support for key gas control processes such as optimizing the layout of coal mine gas extraction boreholes and dynamically predicting gas outburst rates, and has significant on-site application value.

     

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