基于深度学习的矿山电力负荷预测模型

A mining power load forecasting model based on deep learning

  • 摘要: 为了解决矿山电力负荷强波动性、强非线性与突变性显著引发的预测精度低、对突变特征捕捉能力不足、复杂工况泛化性差等问题,研究构建了一种基于深度学习的高精度、强鲁棒性的矿山电力负荷预测模型。该模型以卷积神经网络和双向长短期记忆网络(CNN-BiLSMT)为基础框架,首先引入最大信息系数进行输入特征的自适应筛选,通过融合挤压与激励强化模型对关键特征的感知能力。其次将BiLSTM中部分LSTM单元替换为门控循环单元,再融入残差连接,在优化门控结构的同时缓解长时序建模的梯度衰减问题。最后利用贝叶斯优化完成模型超参数的全局寻优,避免人工调参的主观依赖。实验结果表明,研究模型预测矿山电力负荷的平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error, MAE)仅有19.42kW、均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)均值为26.26kW、平均绝对百分比误差(Mean Absolute Percentage Error, MAPE)低至2.23%,而R2高达0.983。在突变节点处的预测相对误差为3.57%,单轮训练耗时为20.8s,单次预测耗时为118.6ms,均优于现有模型。研究为矿山电力负荷的精准预测提供了新方法,对促进智能矿山安全、高效、低碳发展具有重要的工程应用价值。

     

    Abstract: To address the issues of low prediction accuracy, insufficient capability to capture mutation characteristics, and poor generalization under complex working conditions caused by the strong volatility, high nonlinearity, and significant mutability of mine power loads, a high-precision and robust deep learning-based prediction model for mine power loads is developed in this study. Taking the convolutional neural network and bidirectional long short-term memory network (CNN-BiLSTM) as the basic framework, the model first introduces the maximal information coefficient for adaptive screening of input features, and enhances the model’s perception of key features by integrating the squeeze-and-excitation mechanism. Subsequently, part of the LSTM units in BiLSTM are replaced with gated recurrent units, and residual connections are incorporated to optimize the gating structure while alleviating the gradient vanishing problem in long time-series modeling. Finally, Bayesian optimization is employed to achieve global optimization of model hyperparameters, avoiding the subjective dependence of manual parameter tuning. Experimental results demonstrate that the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the proposed model for mine power load prediction are 19.42 kW, 26.26 kW, and 2.23%, respectively, with an R2 value as high as 0.983. The relative prediction error at mutation nodes is 3.57%, the single-round training time is 20.8 s, and the single prediction time is 118.6 ms, all of which are superior to those of existing models. This study provides a novel method for the accurate prediction of mine power loads and exhibits important engineering application value for promoting the safe, efficient, and low-carbon development of intelligent mines.

     

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