基于Logistic曲线的奥灰水位预测与利民煤矿下组煤带压开采安全性研究

Prediction of Ordovician limestone water level based on Logistic function and safety study of pressurized mining in lower group coal seams of Limin Coal Mine

  • 摘要: 石炭-二叠纪煤层底板下伏的巨厚承压灰岩岩溶裂隙含水层,在开采扰动下极易诱发底板突水事故,严重威胁矿井安全。为解决内蒙古利民煤矿Ⅱ0316采区底板奥灰水带压开采问题,在分析该采区奥灰含水层水文地质特征的基础上,通过Logistic生长曲线拟合研究区奥灰水位标高变化,揭示奥灰水位上升规律,预测研究区开始回采时的奥灰水位标高;利用数据分析与理论计算相结合的手段,采用五图双系数法,将预测水位代入突水系数计算,实现对利民煤矿Ⅱ0316采区的前瞻性安全评价。研究结果表明:Logistic生长曲线拟合效果良好,预测未来奥灰水位将趋于980m稳定值;研究区突水系数最大值为0.043 MPa/m,低于临界值0.06 MPa/m,配合三级判别可得研究区整体属于安全区,判定SF2、SF3、SF4、SF10断层0~31 m范围内为突水危险区,在制定防治措施后,可安全掘进。研究成果为未来利民煤矿奥灰水位预测及带压开采安全带压开采提供借鉴依据,也为我国西部矿区类似条件矿井奥灰水带压开采安全性预测提供理论参考。

     

    Abstract: The thick confined karst fissure aquifer of limestone beneath the Carboniferous-Permian coal seam floor is highly susceptible to floor water inrush under mining disturbances, posing a serious threat to mine safety. To address the problem of pressurized mining of the Ordovician limestone water in the floor of the Ⅱ0316 mining area of the Inner Mongolia Limin Coal Mine, based on an analysis of the hydrogeological characteristics of the Ordovician limestone aquifer in this mining area, the Logistic growth curve is used to fit the variation in the Ordovician water level elevation, revealing the rising pattern of the Ordovician water level and predicting the water level elevation at the time when mining commences. By combining data analysis with theoretical calculation, the predicted water level is incorporated into the calculation of the water inrush coefficient using the five-diagram and two-coefficient method, thereby achieving a forward-looking safety evaluation of the Ⅱ0316 mining area of the Limin Coal Mine. The results show that the Logistic growth curve provides a good fit, and it is predicted that the future Ordovician water level will tend toward a stable value of 980 m. The maximum water inrush coefficient in the study area is 0.043 MPa/m, which is lower than the critical value of 0.06 MPa/m. Combined with the three-level classification, the study area as a whole is classified as a safe zone, while the areas within 0–31 m of the SF2, SF3, SF4, and SF10 faults are identified as water inrush hazardous zones, which can be safely excavated after preventive measures are implemented. The research findings provide a reference basis for future Ordovician water level prediction and safe pressurized mining in the Limin Coal Mine, and offer a theoretical reference for the safety assessment of pressurized mining in Ordovician limestone water in mines with similar conditions in western China.

     

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