基于蒙特卡洛方法的瓦斯测值分析模型
Analysis Model of Gas Measurement Data Based on Monte Carlo Method
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摘要: 针对矿井瓦斯检测系统无法获得所有巷道瓦斯数据、所得瓦斯数据具有一定非客观性以及瓦斯历史数据无法得到充分分析和利用的问题,文章提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛方法的瓦斯测值分析模型。该模型依据矿井通风网络的拓扑结构,生成各巷道瓦斯测点的上游区域,并通过分析各测点上游区域的瓦斯流入测点的历史检测数据,计算出每条巷道的瓦斯涌出历史规律,然后采用蒙特卡罗方法对其进行大样本的随机取样,得到全矿井瓦斯涌出客观规律,并在此基础上采用全系统流量平衡算法,得到全矿井瓦斯浓度统计规律。该模型在瓦斯数据处理方面首次提供了一种根据已知的历史数据生成未知"准历史数据"的方法。实际应用表明,利用该模型对矿井瓦斯历史数据进行分析,可得到无测点巷道的瓦斯"准历史数据",且所得的瓦斯涌出规律和瓦斯浓度规律比历史数据更具有客观性。Abstract: Aiming at the problems that gas measuring system of coal mine couldn’t collect gas data of all tunnels,gas data collected had some non-objectivity and gas history data couldn’t be analyzed and used sufficiently,the paper proposed an analysis model of gas measurement data based on Monte Carlo method.According to topology of coal ventilation network,the model generates upriver area of gas measurement point in each tunnel, and through analyzing history measurement data of measurment point from every (one’s) upriver area,it calculates historical rule of gas emission of each tunnel.Then it uses Monte Carlo method to do random sampling with large sample to the history rule of gas emission so that to get objective rule of gas emission.On the basis,it adopts whole system balancing algorithm and gets statistical rule of gas concentration of whole coal mine.The model provides a method first time which produces unknown(`quasi-history’) data according to known history data on aspect of data processing of gas.Actual application showed that it can get `quasi-history data’ of tunnels cohere there are no measurment points if the model is used to analyze coal gas history data,and rule of gas emission and rule of gas concentration are more objective.