Abstract:
Existing coupled-causation analyses of landslide accidents in open-pit mines lack quantitative characterization and inference of the coupling relationships among risk factors, such as coupling strength and sensitivity of risk factors, which have certain limitations for coupled risk analysis of landslides in open-pit mines. To address this issue, a coupled analysis method for landslide risk in open-pit mines that integrated the N-K model and the Bayesian Network (BN) model was proposed. First, by analyzing 51 officially reported landslide accident cases in open-pit mines, the direct causes of the accidents were classified and summarized, and human factors, environmental factors, mining equipment factors, management factors, and types of risk coupling were defined. Then, the N-K model was constructed to explore the coupling relationships and coupling mechanisms among risk factors. Finally, the calculation results of the N-K model were integrated into the BN model to conduct forward and backward inference and to analyze the sensitivity of risk factors. The results showed that the risk coupling type with the highest probability of causing landslide accidents in open-pit mines was the "human-environment-management" coupling, with a probability of 37.32%; the "human-environment-equipment-management" coupling had the highest risk coupling value, approximately 0.26, with an occurrence rate of 29.60%. Based on the findings, the study suggests that environmental risk factors and management risk factors should be taken as the entry points for systematic and overall control of landslide risks in open-pit mines, so as to prevent the joint effects and chain effects among risk factors and to cut off the coupling relationships among them as much as possible, thereby reducing the occurrence rate of landslide accidents in open-pit mines.