融合N-K模型和BN的露天矿滑坡风险耦合分析

Coupling analysis of landslide risk in open-pit mines integrating N-K model and BN

  • 摘要: 由于交互作用和叠加效应,不同风险之间形成耦合状态,成为重大事故的导火索。为了分析露天矿滑坡事故风险的耦合关系,提出了一种融合N-K模型和贝叶斯网络(BN)模型的复合分析方法。首先,通过分析51起露天矿滑坡事故案例,对事故直接原因进行分类汇总,定义了人的因素、环境因素、采矿设备因素、管理因素及风险耦合类型;其次,构建N-K模型探讨风险因素之间的耦合关系及耦合机理;最后,根据N-K模型的计算结果,整合到BN模型,进行正、逆推理分析与风险因素敏感性研究。结果表明:导致露天矿滑坡事故发生概率最高的风险耦合类型是“人-环-管”耦合,发生概率为37.32%;“人-环-机-管”风险耦合值最高,约为0.26,且发生率为29.60%;我们应该以环境风险因素和管理风险因素为切入点,对露天矿滑坡风险进行系统性全局管控,预防风险因素之间的共同作用与链式效应,尽可能切断风险因素之间的耦合关系,从而降低露天矿滑坡事故的发生率。本研究成果对露天矿的风险分级管控及隐患排查治理双重预防机制建设具有指导作用。

     

    Abstract: Due to the interaction and superposition effect, a coupling state is formed between different risks, which becomes the fuse of major accidents. In order to analyze the coupling relationship between the risk of open-pit mine landslide accidents, a composite analysis method combining the N-K model and Bayesian network (BN) model is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing 51 open-pit mine landslide accident cases, the direct causes of the accidents are classified and summarized, and the human factors, environmental factors, mining equipment factors, management factors and risk coupling types are defined. Secondly, the N-K model is constructed to explore the coupling relationship and coupling mechanism between risk factors. Finally, according to the calculation results of the N-K model, it is integrated into the BN model for forward and reverse reasoning analysis and risk factor sensitivity research. The results show that the risk coupling type with the highest probability of open-pit mine landslide accidents is "human-ring-pipe" coupling, with a probability of 37.32%. The risk coupling value of "human-environment-machine-management" was the highest, about 0.26, and the incidence rate was 29.60%. We should take environmental risk factors and management risk factors as the starting point to systematically control the risk of open-pit mine landslides, prevent the synergy and chain effect between risk factors, and cut off the coupling relationship between risk factors as much as possible, so as to reduce the incidence of open-pit mine landslide accidents. The results of this study have a guiding role in the construction of the dual prevention mechanism of risk hierarchical control and hidden danger investigation and management of open-pit mines.

     

/

返回文章
返回