基于马尔科夫链的煤矿灾变预测系统的建模研究

详细信息

Modeling Research of Coal Mine Disaster Predicting System Based on Markov Chai

Changzhou Automation Research Institute of China Coal Technology and Engineering Group Corporation, Changzhou 213015, China

摘要: 提出了结合煤矿特点构造符合马尔科夫链特征的数学模型的观点，并以马尔科夫链为基本分析工具，详细介绍了设备故障、涌水预警、救险预测三个领域内的数学建模方法。所建模型可以预估机电设备发生故障的概率、井下透水后发生淹井的可能性、事故发生后井下人员的逃生状况，为煤矿灾变预测提供了概然性数据，为煤矿灾变预测系统的技术实现提供了理论支持。
- 煤矿 /
- 灾变预测 /
- 马尔科夫链 /
- 机电设备故障 /
- 井下涌水预警 /
- 事故应急救险
Abstract: The paper proposed an opinion of constructing mathematics models which accords with characters of Marcov chain according to characteristics of coal mine, and used Marcov chain as a basic analyzing tool to describe mathematics modeling methods in three fields including fault analysis of electromechanical equipments, early warning analysis of underground waterbursting, and forecasting analysis of emergency rescue in details. The constructed models can predict probability of equipment faults, probability of underground waterbursting and escape situation after emergency, which provides probable data for coal mine disaster predicting and theory support for technology realization of coal mine disaster predicting system.
- coal mine, disaster predicting, Marcov chain, electromechanical equipment fault, early warning of underground waterbursting, emergency rescue