基于特征选择与BO-GBDT的工作面瓦斯涌出量预测方法研究

Research on Synergistic Prediction Method of Gas Emission from Working Face Based on Feature Selection and BO-GBDT

  • 摘要: 为了快速精准的对矿井工作面的瓦斯涌出量进行预测,建立梯度提升决策树(GBDT)瓦斯涌出量预测模型。考虑到工作面瓦斯涌出影响因素多、数据集信息冗余及降低后续数据集收集强度,利用5种特征选择算法对数据集进行特征过滤,分析每种特征组合在GBDT模型中的拟合度、计算时间及预测结果,优选出包装法为最佳的特征选择算法,预测结果,特征数量的多少与预测结果的准确性和泛化性并不成正比关系,冗余特征或无关特征的存在反而会降低模型的预测准确性。为了进一步提高模型精度,通过5种超参数寻优算法对GBDT模型进行超参数寻优,对比分析每一种超参数组合的预测结果表明:寻优算法本身对GBDT模型的准确性和泛化性影响较小,但基于TPE的贝叶斯优化(BO)算法所得出的最优超参数组合在GBDT模型中具有最高的准确率和相对较少的优化时间,其优化性能最佳,以此建立BO-GBDT模型。将特征选择后的数据集划分出训练集及测试集,利用BO-GBDT模型进行工作面瓦斯涌出量预测,并与随机森林模型、支持向量机模型、神经网络模型预测结果进行对比,结果表明:GBDT模型具有更高的准确性和泛化性,其预测结果的平均相对误差为2.7%,相比随机森林模型、支持向量机模型、神经网络模型预测结果的相对误差4.48%、4.51%、3.48%分别降低了39.73%、40.13%、22.41%,能够很好的满足现场的工程需求,为矿井的安全生产提供一定的理论指导。

     

    Abstract: To rapidly and accurately predict the gas emission volume in mine working faces, a Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model for gas emission prediction was established. Given the numerous influencing factors of gas emission in working faces, data set redundancy, and the need to reduce subsequent data collection intensity, five feature selection algorithms were applied to filter features from the data set. By analyzing the fitness, computation time, and prediction outcomes of each feature combination within the GBDT model, the wrapper method was identified as the optimal feature selection algorithm. The study revealed that the number of features does not necessarily correlate positively with prediction accuracy and generalization; instead, the presence of redundant or irrelevant features can detract from the model's predictive accuracy.To further enhance model precision, five hyperparameter optimization algorithms were utilized to tune the GBDT model. Comparative analysis of each hyperparameter combination's prediction outcomes indicated that while the optimization algorithm itself had a limited impact on the GBDT model's accuracy and generalization, the optimal hyperparameter combination derived from Tree-structured Parzen Estimator-based Bayesian Optimization (BO) achieved the highest accuracy with a relatively short optimization time, demonstrating the best optimization performance. Consequently, a BO-GBDT model was established.After dividing the feature-selected data set into training and testing sets, the BO-GBDT model was employed to predict gas emission in working faces. Comparisons with Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network models revealed that the GBDT model exhibited superior accuracy and generalization, with an average relative error of 2.7%, representing reductions of 39.73%, 40.13%, and 22.41% respectively compared to the 4.48%, 4.51%, and 3.48% relative errors of the Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network models. This demonstrates that the GBDT model can effectively meet on-site engineering requirements and provide theoretical guidance for safe mine production.

     

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