基于STL-CEEMDAN分解的ISSA-LSTM瓦斯浓度预测探究

The Research Of Gas Concentration Prediction Driven By STL -CEEMDAN-ISSA-LSTM model

  • 摘要: 为提高煤矿瓦斯浓度预测精度,针对瓦斯浓度数据时序性强、非线性显著的特点,提出了一种基于STL-CEEMDAN-ISSA-LSTM的瓦斯浓度预测模型。首先采用STL技术将瓦斯浓度序列分解为趋势项、周期项与不规则项,并利用CEEMDAN对不规则项进一步分解为11个IMF分量及残差;随后引入高维Sin混沌映射与小孔成像策略对麻雀搜索算法进行改进,以增强全局寻优能力,并以此优化LSTM超参数,构建ISSA-LSTM预测子模型,最终集成各分量预测结果得到最终预测值。研究结果表明:与STL-CEEMDAN-LSTM、STL-ISSA-LSTM等对比模型相比,所提模型在预测精度与泛化能力上均表现更优。以期为煤矿瓦斯浓度的智能预测与安全预警提供有效的技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the issues of insufficient prediction accuracy and slow convergence of single characteristic gas concentration, this study proposed a gas concentration prediction model based on the hybrid approach of STL-CEEMDAN-ISSA-LSTM. Initially, the gas concentration was decomposed into the trend, periodic, and irregular terms using the STL technology. To address the randomness and uncertainty associated with the irregular term, CEEMDAN decomposition was employed to separate it into 11 IMF components and residual margin. To improve the searching ability of the Sparrow search algorithm and to optimize LSTM-related hyperparameters, this study introduced the Sin chaos model, reverse learning strategy, and Cauchy mutation strategy. The ISSA-LSTM gas concentration prediction model was constructed to predict the trend term, periodic term, IMF components, and residual margin decomposed by CEEMDAN. The prediction results of each component model were then superimposed to obtain the final prediction results of gas concentration. Finally, the proposed model was compared with LSTM, STL-CEEMDAN-LSTM, STL-ISSA-LSTM, and other models using the measured gas concentration in Yanbei Coal Mine 250203 working face as a sample. The results demonstrate the superior prediction accuracy of the proposed model over other algorithms.

     

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