基于时空特征融合的液压支架载荷分区预测研究

Load zoning prediction of hydraulic supports based on spatiotemporal feature fusion

  • 摘要: 浅埋煤层综采工作面支架载荷呈现强烈的空间非平稳性与区域差异性,目前大多研究仅预测单一支架,且实验设计中忽略了与相邻支架的关联性,难以精准预测工作面各区域支架载荷。针对该问题,提出一种基于时空特征融合的液压支架载荷分区预测方法。基于弹性基础梁理论分析工作面顶板挠度与支架载荷的分布特征,结合现场支架载荷数据,采用K−means++聚类算法对液压支架进行区域划分并验证其合理性;通过特征工程将相邻6个支架的载荷数据作为外部回归变量引入XGBoost模型,结合LSTM在捕捉长期依赖关系与非线性响应方面的优势,构建了XGBoost−LSTM组合预测模型,并通过优化输入窗口长度与输出步长参数,实现对各区域代表性支架载荷的精准预测。研究结果表明:支架载荷呈“中间大、两端小”的分布趋势,可将支架划分为5个典型区域;当窗口长度为60、输出步长为6时,模型在多步预测任务中的性能最佳,各区域预测结果的决定系数提升至0.947,均方根误差(RMSE)与平均绝对误差(MAE)分别降低至0.303 MPa与0.152 MPa,相较于次优模型XGBoost,RMSE与MAE分别降低了44.4%和35.4%,且在周期来压等关键阶段准确性更高。

     

    Abstract: The support load of hydraulic supports in fully mechanized mining faces of shallow-buried coal seams exhibits strong spatial non-stationarity and regional differences. At present, most studies only predict the load of a single support, and the experimental design ignores the correlations with adjacent supports, making it difficult to accurately predict support loads in different regions of the working face. To address this issue, a hydraulic support load zoning prediction method based on spatiotemporal feature fusion was proposed. The distribution characteristics of roof deflection and support load in the working face were analyzed based on elastic foundation beam theory. Combined with field-measured support load data, the K-means++ clustering algorithm was used to divide hydraulic supports into regions and to verify the rationality of the obtained zoning. Through feature engineering, the load data of six adjacent supports were introduced as exogenous variables into an XGBoost model. By integrating the advantages of LSTM in capturing long-term dependencies and nonlinear responses, an XGBoost–LSTM combined prediction model was constructed. By optimizing the input window length and output step size parameters, accurate prediction of representative support loads in each region was achieved. The results showed that the support load exhibited a distribution trend of "larger in the middle and smaller at both ends", and the supports were divided into five typical regions. When the window length was 60 and the output step size was 6, the model achieved the best performance in multi-step prediction tasks. The coefficient of determination of the prediction results in each region increased to 0.947, while the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) decreased to 0.303 MPa and 0.152 MPa, respectively. Compared with the suboptimal XGBoost model, RMSE and MAE were reduced by 44.4% and 35.4%, respectively, and the prediction accuracy was higher during critical stages such as periodic weighting.

     

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