基于LSTM−CNN的露天矿粉尘浓度预测模型

LSTM-CNN-based prediction model for dust concentration in open-pit mines

  • 摘要: 目前露天矿粉尘浓度预测模型通常依赖于已知的指标和参数来估计粉尘浓度,露天矿环境复杂多变,粉尘浓度的关键影响因素众多且难以明确界定,现有预测模型在精度和泛化能力方面存在一定的局限性,且现有预测模型往往忽视了数据中深层次的时空特征,难以全面反映粉尘浓度的变化规律。针对上述问题,提出了一种基于长短期记忆网络(LSTM)−卷积神经网络(CNN)的露天矿粉尘浓度预测模型。利用Pearson相关性分析筛选出湿度、噪声、剥采量与风速作为粉尘浓度预测的输入指标;这些指标经预处理后输入基于注意力机制的多个并行CNN单元,分别在不同尺度上提取输入的局部空间特征,并通过注意力机制加权,以增强与粉尘浓度关联性更强的特征表达,抑制冗余或噪声信息;注意力增强后的特征被重组为时间序列格式,由LSTM门控机制捕捉粉尘浓度随时间变化的动态模式和长期依赖关系,通过全连接层实现粉尘浓度预测。实验结果表明:与单一模型LSTM,CNN和随机森林相比,LSTM−CNN的决定系数R2分别提升7.85%,12.91%和23.49%;均方根误差(RMSE)分别降低17.81%,45.76%和33.35%;平均绝对误差(MAE)分别降低26.48%,25.56%和24.52%。与融合模型随机森林−支持向量回归和随机森林−门控循环单元相比,LSTM−CNN的R2分别提升2.89%和4.79%,RMSE分别降低9.15%和14.12%,MAE分别降低11.40%和16.53%。

     

    Abstract: Current prediction models for dust concentration in open-pit mines usually rely on predefined indicators and parameters to estimate dust levels. However, the open-pit mining environment is complex and highly variable, and the key factors influencing dust concentration are numerous and difficult to clearly define. As a result, existing prediction models show limitations in prediction accuracy and generalization ability, and they often ignore the deep spatiotemporal features embedded in the data, making it difficult to comprehensively characterize the variation patterns of dust concentration. To address these issues, a dust concentration prediction model for open-pit mines based on a Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) - Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) was proposed. Pearson correlation analysis was used to select humidity, noise, stripping volume, and wind speed as input indicators for dust concentration prediction. After preprocessing, these indicators were fed into multiple parallel CNN units with an attention mechanism, which extracted local spatial features at different scales. The attention mechanism was used to weight the extracted features, enhancing feature representations that were more strongly related to dust concentration while suppressing redundant or noisy information. The attention-enhanced features were then reorganized into a time-series format, and the gated mechanism of the LSTM captured the temporal dynamic patterns and long-term dependencies of dust concentration. Finally, dust concentration was predicted through a fully connected layer. Experimental results showed that, compared with single models including LSTM, CNN, and Random Forest (RF), the proposed LSTM-CNN model improved the coefficient of determination R2 by 7.85%, 12.91%, and 23.49%, respectively, reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 17.81%, 45.76%, and 33.35%, and reduced the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 26.48%, 25.56%, and 24.52%. Compared with hybrid models RF-SVR and RF-GRU, the LSTM-CNN model improved R2 by 2.89% and 4.79%, reduced RMSE by 9.15% and 14.12%, and reduced MAE by 11.40% and 16.53%, respectively.

     

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