基于动态图卷积Transformer的瓦斯浓度预测模型

Gas concentration prediction model based on dynamic graph convolutional Transformer

  • 摘要: 准确预测瓦斯浓度对预防瓦斯灾害事故至关重要,预测精度受瓦斯浓度时间变化规律和瓦斯扩散时空分布特征的双重影响。现有的模型驱动预测方法难以胜任长期和大规模瓦斯浓度预测任务,而数据驱动预测方法未考虑动态空间维度特征的影响,导致模型泛化性能较差。为了捕获瓦斯浓度变化的时空依赖性,提高瓦斯预测精确性,提出一种融合多尺度机制的时序−动态图卷积Transformer(TDMformer)并用于构建瓦斯浓度预测模型。在ITransformer框架基础上,设计了时序−变量注意力机制,用于同时建模时序与变量维度特征;融合动态图卷积网络,用于描述井下瓦斯传感器网络拓扑结构,捕获瓦斯浓度数据的空间依赖性;引入多尺度门控Tanh单元,以增强多尺度特征提取能力。实验结果表明,与Graph−WaveNet,GRU,Transformer,AGCRN,DSformer,STAEformer,FourierGNN 等模型相比,TDMformer模型的均方根误差分别降低了24.87%,26.37%,21.69%,19.57%,11.90%,10.84%,9.20%,平均绝对误差分别降低了17.09%,25.58%,26.89%,14.56%,11.10%,5.75%,4.53%,拟合系数分别提高了5.94%,6.51%,4.79%,4.12%,2.21%,2.08%,1.76%,验证了该模型具有更高的预测精度和数据拟合度。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of gas concentration is crucial for preventing gas disasters. The prediction accuracy is influenced by both the temporal variation patterns of gas concentration and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of gas diffusion. Existing model-driven prediction methods struggle to handle long-term and large-scale gas concentration prediction tasks, while data-driven prediction methods do not consider the impact of dynamic spatial features, resulting in poor generalization performance. To capture the spatiotemporal dependency of gas concentration changes and improve the prediction accuracy, a Temporal-Dynamic Graph Convolutional Transformer with Multi-Scale Mechanism (TDMformer) was proposed to construct a gas concentration prediction model. Based on the ITransformer framework, a temporal-variable attention mechanism was designed to model the temporal and variable features simultaneously. A dynamic graph convolutional network was integrated to describe the topology of underground gas sensor networks and capture the spatial dependency of gas concentration data. A multi-scale gated Tanh unit was introduced to enhance the multi-scale feature extraction capability. The experimental results showed that, compared with Graph-WaveNet, GRU, Transformer, AGCRN, DSformer, STAEformer, and FourierGNN, the root mean square error of the TDMformer model decreased by 24.87%, 26.37%, 21.69%, 19.57%, 11.90%, 10.84%, and 9.20%, respectively. The mean absolute error decreased by 17.09%, 25.58%, 26.89%, 14.56%, 11.10%, 5.75%, and 4.53%, respectively. The coefficient of determination increased by 5.94%, 6.51%, 4.79%, 4.12%, 2.21%, 2.08%, and 1.76%, respectively, verifying that this model had higher prediction accuracy and better data fitting performance.

     

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