基于xLSTM−Informer的瓦斯浓度预测模型研究

Study on a gas concentration prediction model based on xLSTM-Informer

  • 摘要: 针对矿井瓦斯浓度预测任务中存在的多变量非线性耦合、长期依赖建模能力不足及模型滞后响应严重等问题,提出了一种融合扩展型长短期记忆网络(xLSTM)与Informer结构的复合型预测模型(xLSTM−Informer)。将xLSTM作为前置处理器,通过多层残差记忆单元提取短时间窗口内的波动模式与变量间的耦合信息,并将其转换为结构化时序序列表征,再将处理后的时序表示输入至Informer主干结构中,进一步在扩展的时间窗口中提取全局依赖关系与稳定趋势,从而在保持细节响应的同时增强预测的时序连续性。基于井下束管监测系统采集的多源环境参数数据,开展特征重要性分析,选取O2浓度、温度与风速3个指标作为输入变量,构建输入特征体系。利用xLSTM提取深层时序特征,并通过Informer中引入的ProbSparse自注意力机制,有效捕捉时序特征中的全局依赖关系,从而提升模型对非平稳性瓦斯浓度预测的能力。为评估xLSTM−Informer模型在瓦斯浓度预测任务中的性能优势,与xLSTM模型、Transformer模型及经典Informer模型进行比较,结果表明:xLSTM−Informer模型在平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)与决定系数R2上均取得最优性能,R2达0.954,较对比模型分别提升了21.4%,17.8%和19.4%。为进一步验证xLSTM−Informer模型在瓦斯浓度预测任务中的有效性与适应性,选取某矿井综放工作面实测传感器数据进行实例验证,同时与LSTM−Transformer,RNN−Informer,LSTM−Informer和双向LSTM−Informer(BiLSTM−Informer)4类复合模型进行对比,结果表明:xLSTM−Informer模型在瓦斯浓度变化趋势与关键拐点的响应方面均优于对比模型,表现出较高的拟合性和时序同步性。

     

    Abstract: To address issues such as multivariate nonlinear coupling, inadequate long-term dependency modeling, and serious lagged response of the model for the task of mine gas concentration time series prediction, this paper proposed a hybrid prediction model, xLSTM-Informer, which fused the Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) network with the Informer architecture. The xLSTM was used as a pre-processor to extract fluctuation patterns and inter-variable coupling information within short time windows through multi-layer residual memory units, converting them into a structured time series representation. The processed temporal representation was then input into the Informer backbone architecture to further extract global dependencies and stable trends over an extended time window, thereby enhancing the temporal continuity of predictions while preserving detailed responses. Based on multi-source environmental parameter data collected from an underground tube bundle monitoring system, a feature importance analysis was conducted to select O2 concentration, temperature, and wind speed as input variables for constructing the input feature system. The model utilized xLSTM to extract deep temporal features, and the ProbSparse attention mechanism within the Informer effectively captured global dependencies in the temporal features, thus improving the model’s ability to predict non-stationary gas concentration. To evaluate the performance advantages of the xLSTM-Informer model, it was compared with the xLSTM, Transformer, and classic Informer models. The results showed that the xLSTM-Informer model achieved optimal performance on the metrics of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Coefficient of Determination R2. Its R2 reached 0.954, representing improvements of 21.4%, 17.8%, and 19.4% over the comparison models, respectively. To further validate the effectiveness and adaptability of the xLSTM-Informer model, measured sensor data from a fully mechanized mining face in a mine were used for a case study. The model was also compared with four other hybrid models: LSTM-Transformer, RNN-Informer, LSTM-Informer, and a Bidirectional LSTM-Informer (BiLSTM-Informer). The results indicated that the xLSTM-Informer model outperformed the comparison models in its response to gas concentration trends and key turning points, demonstrating high goodness of fit and temporal synchronization.

     

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