基于XGBoost−SHAP的综采工作面上隅角瓦斯溯源模型

A traceability model for upper corner gas in fully mechanized mining faces based on XGBoost-SHAP

  • 摘要: 针对目前综采工作面上隅角瓦斯浓度预测模型由于“黑盒”结构导致内部运行逻辑未知、预测结果可解释性弱的问题,提出一种基于XGBoost−SHAP的综采工作面上隅角瓦斯溯源模型。对综采工作面瓦斯涌出浓度关联监测数据进行相关分析,筛选出特征变量;基于XGBoost搭建上隅角瓦斯浓度预测模型,引入SHAP算法计算每个特征变量对预测结果的贡献值,增强模型透明度,为XGBoost提供全局性解释;最后利用现场多源传感监测数据对模型性能进行验证。实例分析结果表明:① XGBoost模型的决定系数R2、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.93,0.007,0.008,相较于随机森林(RF)、支持向量回归(SVR)和梯度提升决策树(GBDT),拟合优度最高,误差最低。② XGBoost模型的平均相对误差为4.478%,相较于对比模型,具有较高的精度与较好的泛化性能。③ 依据各输入特征的平均绝对SHAP值,工作面T1瓦斯浓度对上隅角瓦斯浓度影响最大,工作面上隅角瓦斯抽采管道内瓦斯浓度次之,回采煤层瓦斯含量、回采煤层顶板压力等紧随其后,说明XGBoost能捕捉变量间的非线性关系和交互作用,SHAP算法可为XGBoost模型提供全局性解释。

     

    Abstract: To address the weak interpretability caused by the "black-box" structure of current gas concentration prediction models in the upper corner of fully mechanized mining faces, a gas traceability model based on XGBoost-SHAP was proposed for the upper corner of fully mechanized mining faces. Correlation analysis was conducted on the monitoring data of gas emission from fully mechanized mining faces to select feature variables. An upper corner gas concentration prediction model was constructed based on XGBoost, and the SHAP algorithm was introduced to calculate the contribution of each feature variable to the prediction results, thereby enhancing the model's transparency and providing a global interpretation for the XGBoost model. Finally, the model performance was evaluated using multi-source sensor monitoring data from the field. Case analysis results showed that: ① the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) of the XGBoost model were 0.93, 0.007, and 0.008, respectively, indicating the highest goodness of fit and the lowest errors compared with random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). ② The mean relative error of the XGBoost model was 4.478%, demonstrating higher accuracy and better generalization performance compared with the other models. ③ Based on the mean absolute SHAP values of input features, the gas concentration at T1 on the working face had the greatest influence on the gas concentration in the upper corner, followed by the gas concentration in the upper corner extraction pipeline, with the gas content and roof pressure of the mining coal seam following closely. These findings indicate that XGBoost can capture the nonlinear relationships and interactions between variables, and that the SHAP algorithm can provide global interpretability for the XGBoost model.

     

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