基于PCA−G1−ET的露天矿采场滑坡预警

Landslide early warning for open-pit mine based on PCA-G1-ET

  • 摘要: 露天矿采场滑坡的发生受地质条件、气象条件及人为开采活动等多因素影响,然而现有研究侧重于少数滑坡主导诱因下的滑坡预警,没有考虑爆破震动、开挖卸荷、岩体结构等复杂动态因素,面对监测数据维度高的场景,现有预警方法的普适性存在明显不足。针对上述问题,提出了一种融合主成分分析(PCA)、G1序关系分析法(G1)与可拓理论(ET)的露天矿采场滑坡预警方法。首先,选取月位移量、内摩擦角、黏聚力、有效降雨量、含水率、开采边坡角、结构面倾角差及开采扰动速率作为预警指标,将露天矿采场滑坡预警等级分为蓝色(低风险)、黄色(一般风险)、橙色(较高风险)、红色(极高风险)4级;其次,采用PCA对指标对应的监测数据进行降维,提取主成分信息并确定指标综合重要性排序;然后,通过G1法确定相邻指标的重要性程度比值,从而计算预警指标权重;最后,结合ET构建物元模型,通过经典域、节域物元和待评价物元计算单指标关联度,并加权得到综合关联度,依据最大关联度原则判定预警等级。应用结果表明,通过该方法计算得到的露天矿采场滑坡预警等级为蓝色,与边坡实际状况相符。

     

    Abstract: The occurrence of open-pit mine landslides is influenced by multiple factors such as geological conditions, meteorological conditions, and human mining activities. However, existing studies focus on landslide early warning under a few dominant inducing factors, without considering complex dynamic factors such as blasting vibration, excavation unloading, and rock mass structure. In scenarios with high-dimensional monitoring data, existing early warning methods have evident limitations in terms of general applicability. To address the above problems, this study proposed an early warning method for open-pit mine landslides, integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA), G1-order Relation Analysis Method (G1), and Extension Theory (ET). Firstly, monthly displacement, internal friction angle, cohesion, effective rainfall, water content, mining slope angle, structural plane dip difference, and mining disturbance rate were selected as early warning indicators. The early warning levels for open-pit mine landslides were classified into four levels: blue (low risk), yellow (general risk), orange (high risk), and red (extremely high risk). Secondly, PCA was used to reduce the dimensionality of the monitoring data corresponding to the indicators, extract principal component information, and determine the comprehensive importance ranking of the indicators. Then, the G1 method was applied to determine the importance ratio between adjacent indicators and calculate the weights of the early warning indicators. Finally, an element model was constructed based on ET, and the single-indicator correlation degrees were calculated through classical domain, segment domain element, and the element representing the object under evaluation, followed by weighted calculation of the comprehensive correlation degree. The early warning level was determined according to the maximum correlation degree principle. The application results showed that the early warning level of open-pit mine landslide obtained by this method was blue, which was consistent with the actual slope condition.

     

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