基于微震时空流图的冲击地压危险区域预测方法

Prediction method for rockburst hazard areas based on microseismic spatiotemporal flow map

  • 摘要: 微震事件的时空分布特征与煤矿冲击地压强度之间存在密切关联,基于机器学习的微震数据预测方法及可视化呈现是冲击地压监测预警的重要技术手段,但目前存在无法有效预测危险区域移动轨迹、微震数据时空协同可视化困难、数据堆叠难以显示等问题。针对该问题,提出了一种基于微震时空流图的冲击地压危险区域预测方法。在该方法的数据预处理模块,采用二维核密度估计法将离散的微震数据进行连续表示,并构建核密度热力图反映微震数据空间聚集程度;在时空流图构建模块,改进引力模型以提取微震数据时空特征,采用箭头对时空流移动方向进行可视化效果呈现;在危险区域预测模块,利用K−means聚类算法优化可视化结果。采用内蒙古某矿2215工作面和陕西某矿4106工作面微震数据,分别针对断层和采空区的冲击地压危险区域进行预测实验,结果表明该方法能够有效、准确预测冲击地压危险区域的转移方向,采用K−means聚类算法后微震时空流图中箭头数量优化率分别为77.27%,87.5%,可视化效果更加简洁、直观。

     

    Abstract: The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of microseismic events are closely related to the intensity of rockbursts in coal mines. Prediction methods and visual representations of microseismic data based on machine learning are important technical means for monitoring and early warning of rockbursts. However, challenges remain in effectively predicting the movement paths of hazard areas, visualizing spatiotemporal patterns of microseismic data in a coordinated manner, and clearly displaying stacked data. To address this issue, a prediction method for rockburst hazard areas based on a microseismic spatiotemporal flow map was proposed. In the data preprocessing module of this method, a two-dimensional kernel density estimation method was used to continuously represent discrete microseismic data, and a kernel density heat map was constructed to reflect the spatial aggregation degree of microseismic events. In the spatiotemporal flow map construction module, the gravity model was improved to extract the spatiotemporal features of microseismic data, and arrows were used to visualize the direction of the spatiotemporal flow. In the hazard area prediction module, the K-means clustering algorithm was used to optimize the visualization results. Microseismic data from the 2215 working face of a mine in Inner Mongolia and the 4106 working face of a mine in Shaanxi were used to conduct rockburst hazard prediction experiments separately for fault zones and goaf areas. The results showed that this method could effectively and accurately predict the movement direction of rockburst hazard areas. After applying the K-means clustering algorithm, the number of arrows in the microseismic spatiotemporal flow maps was optimized by 77.27% and 87.5%, respectively, making the visualizations more concise and intuitive.

     

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