基于熵权−集对分析法的矿井综合安全评价

Comprehensive safety evaluation of mines based on entropy weight and set pair analysis method

  • 摘要: 现有矿井安全评价方法的评价指标单一,对各类指标无法定量分析其不确定性程度,在实际工程应用中存在明显的局限性。针对上述问题,提出了一种基于熵权−集对分析法的矿井综合安全评价方法。首先,基于人、机、环、管4类因素构建了包含19个评价指标的矿井综合安全评价指标体系;然后,利用熵权法根据安全评价指标数据的离散程度自动确认权重,可有效避免主观干预,保持计算简便的同时兼具客观性与准确性;最后,采用专家打分的形式得出矿井安全评价指标分值,并通过集对分析方法计算各安全评价指标分值与不同风险等级之间的联系度,再利用加权平均法得出每个评价对象与不同风险等级之间的平均联系度,最终基于最大隶属度理论确定矿井安全风险等级。应用结果表明,通过该方法计算得到的小保当矿井风险等级为较低风险,与实际情况一致;该矿井不安全因素主要表现为实际操作过程中工人疲劳作业率较高,技术水平达标率较低,设备更新换代较慢,以及应急管理措施不完善、安全监查不及时等,可为后续改善矿井安全水平提供依据。

     

    Abstract: The existing mine safety evaluation methods adopt relatively simple evaluation indicators and cannot quantitatively analyze the uncertainty degree of various indicators, resulting in significant limitations in practical engineering applications. To address these problems, a comprehensive mine safety evaluation method based on entropy weight and set pair analysis method is proposed. First, a comprehensive mine safety evaluation index system consisting of 19 indicators was constructed based on four factors: human, machine, environment, and management. Then, the entropy weight method was used to automatically determine the weights according to the degree of dispersion of the safety evaluation data, which could effectively avoid subjective interference while ensuring both simplicity of calculation and objectivity and accuracy. Finally, expert scoring was used to obtain the scores of each safety evaluation indicator, and set pair analysis method was applied to calculate the degree of connection between the indicator scores and different risk levels. The weighted average method was further adopted to obtain the average connection degree between each evaluation object and different risk levels. Based on the maximum membership degree theory, the final mine safety risk level was determined. The application results showed that the calculated risk level of Xiaobaodang Mine using this method was low, which was consistent with the actual situation. The main unsafe factors of the mine were high worker fatigue rate during actual operations, low compliance rate of technical standards, slow equipment updates, and incomplete emergency management measures and untimely safety inspections. The method can provide a reference for improving mine safety in the future.

     

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