Risk assessment of water inrush from coal seam floor based on comprehensive weighting
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摘要: 针对现有煤层底板突水危险性评价模型针对含复杂地质构造工作面泛化能力不强且准确性较低的问题，提出一种基于层次分析法（AHP）和改进熵权法（IEW）综合赋权的煤层底板突水危险性评价模型。基于单指标未确知测度，采用AHP−IEW综合赋权法给出影响煤层底板突水各评价指标的综合权重；建立煤层底板突水危险性综合评价模型，运用该模型计算各评价指标的未确知测度值，再根据置信度识别准则进行等级判定，得出评价结果。以盘道煤业有限公司1305工作面为研究对象验证该模型的可行性：① 根据该煤矿的实际情况，选取影响底板突水风险的开采深度、煤层厚度、煤层倾角、含水层水压、有效隔水层厚度、底板脆性岩厚度、断层分形维数、底板完整性作为评价指标，并建立了底板突水危险性分级标准；② 构建单指标测度函数，得到各评价指标的测度值；③ 采用AHP−IEW综合赋权法得到各评价指标的综合权重；④ 结合综合权重和评价指标的未确知测度矩阵确定综合测度评价向量；⑤ 根据综合测度评价向量对该煤矿研究区域内的调查点进行危险等级划分，并与现场调查结果进行对比分析。验证结果表明：与IEW评价结果相比，基于AHP−IEW综合赋权的煤层底板突水危险性评价模型的预测结果更准确，评价结果与工作面开采过程中的实际调查情况相符。Abstract: The existing risk assessment model of water inrush from coal seam floor has the problems of weak generalization capability and low accuracy for the working face with complex geological structures. In order to solve the above problems, a risk assessment model of water inrush from coal seam floor based on comprehensive weighting by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and improved entropy weight method (IEW) is proposed. Based on the unascertained measure of single index, the comprehensive weight of each assessment index affecting water inrush from coal seam floor is given by the AHP-IEW comprehensive weighting method. A comprehensive risk assessment model of water inrush from coal seam floor is established. The unascertained measure value of each assessment index is calculated by using the model. Then according to the recognition criteria of confidence, the grade is determined and the assessment result is obtained. The feasibility of the model is verified by taking 1305 working face of Pandao Coal Industry Co., Ltd. as the research object. ① According to the actual situation of the coal mine, the mining depth, coal seam thickness, coal seam dip angle, aquifer water pressure, effective water barrier thickness, floor brittle rock thickness, fault fractal dimension and floor integrity that affect the floor water inrush risk are selected as the assessment indexes. The graded standard of floor water inrush risk is established. ② The single index measure functions are constructed to obtain the measure value of each assessment index. ③ The comprehensive weight of each assessment index is obtained by AHP-IEW comprehensive weighting method. ④ The comprehensive measure assessment vector is determined by combining the comprehensive weight and the unascertained measure matrix of the assessment index. ⑤ According to the comprehensive measure assessment vector, the investigation points in the study area of the coal mine are classified into risk grades. The results are compared with the field investigation results. The verification results show that compared with IEW assessment results, the prediction accuracy of risk assessment model of water inrush from coal seam floor based on AHP-IEW comprehensive weighting is higher. The assessment results are consistent with the actual investigation situation in the mining process of the working face.
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表 1 底板突水风险评价指标分级标准
Table 1. Graded standard of risk assessment indexes of floor water inrush
评价指标 评价指标等级 Ⅰ（C1） Ⅱ（C2） Ⅲ（C3） Ⅳ（C4） Ⅴ（C5） X1/m ＜300 300～450 450～600 600～800 ＞800 X2/m ＜1.5 1.5～3 3～4.5 4.5～6 ＞6 X3/（°） ＜5 5～10 10～20 20～30 ＞30 X4/MPa ＜1 1～2 2～3 3～4 ＞4 X5/m ＞95 75～95 55～75 35～55 ＜35 X6/m ＞30 25～30 20～25 15～20 ＜15 X7 ＜0.3 0.3～0.5 0.5～0.7 0.7～0.9 ＞0.9 X8 0.9～1 0.75～0.9 0.5～0.75 0.2～0.5 0～0.2 
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表 2 研究区工作面影响因素定量结果
Table 2. Quantitative results of influencing factors of working face in study area
调查点编号 评价指标 X1/m X2/m X3/（°） X4/MPa X5/m X6/m X7 X8 D3−1 520.65 6.2 7.0 3.63 111.52 23.04 0.824 6 0.70 D3−2 499.13 5.9 9.3 2.74 117.55 22.20 0.720 3 0.54 D3−3 534.72 5.4 4.3 3.40 94.62 23.21 0.864 2 0.85 D3−4 528.45 6.1 6.5 3.56 108.82 23.86 0.598 4 0.60 D3−5 483.56 5.6 8.5 2.38 102.83 23.30 0.987 4 0.79 D3−6 456.72 5.7 8.0 3.06 93.62 23.38 0.563 5 0.50 D3−7 502.43 5.3 4.6 2.08 108.16 22.32 0.863 5 0.79
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表 3 工作面底板突水风险评价指标权重
Table 3. Weight value of risk assessment indexes of floor water inrush of working face
评价指标 $ {w'_j} $ $ {w''_j} $ $ {w_j} $ X1 0.038 6 0.117 1 0.077 9 X2 0.025 0 0.127 1 0.076 1 X3 0.019 0 0.127 2 0.073 1 X4 0.262 9 0.121 8 0.192 4 X5 0.155 8 0.128 6 0.142 2 X6 0.104 7 0.125 1 0.114 9 X7 0.253 5 0.126 1 0.189 9 X8 0.140 4 0.126 9 0.133 7
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表 4 底板突水风险评价结果
Table 4. Risk assessment results of floor water inrush
调查点编号 综合未确知测度 AHP−IEW评价结果 现场调查结果(是否出水) IEW评价结果 Ⅰ（C1） Ⅱ（C2） Ⅲ（C3） Ⅳ（C4） Ⅴ（C5） D3−1 0.156 8 0.123 3 0.261 7 0.285 6 0.172 8 Ⅳ 是 Ⅲ D3−2 0.142 2 0.069 0 0.504 3 0.218 8 0.066 0 Ⅲ 否 Ⅲ D3−3 0.254 5 0.110 9 0.191 4 0.306 3 0.137 1 Ⅳ 是 Ⅲ D3−4 0.171 4 0.075 1 0.283 1 0.371 4 0.099 2 Ⅳ 是 Ⅲ D3−5 0.142 2 0.236 7 0.355 3 0.040 6 0.225 4 Ⅲ 否 Ⅲ D3−6 0.122 6 0.253 8 0.284 7 0.293 4 0.045 7 Ⅲ 否 Ⅲ D3−7 0.215 3 0.202 8 0.311 9 0.144 5 0.125 7 Ⅲ 否 Ⅲ
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