Research on risk assessment of coal mine safety hidden dangers
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摘要: 现有的煤矿安全隐患风险评级只是简单的隐患叠加,隐患风险评价没有考虑时间因素,不能达到实时预警目的,更不能反映不同时刻隐患的状态,且风险评价没有与隐患排查闭环管理流程紧密结合,不能反映风险的动态变化。针对以上问题,分析了煤矿安全隐患的形成、发展到事故发生的隐患生命周期,并结合隐患排查及预警管理流程,对单个隐患风险和区域隐患风险进行了综合评价,并建立相应的应急处理机制。采用评点法,从隐患排查辨识难度、隐患易发性、隐患可控性等方面对单个隐患风险进行评价,将隐患整改持续时间纳入到隐患风险评价中,实时反映出不同时刻隐患的状态,更加符合隐患的发展规律;根据煤矿安全隐患排查治理能力与动态显性隐患的制约关系对区域隐患风险进行综合评价,根据区域综合隐患风险值,结合区域实际可分别设置不同的预警等级,实现区域隐患综合预警,将隐患排查治理能力因素考虑在区域隐患风险评价中,更能准确反映出区域隐患的风险程度和风险趋势。Abstract: The existing risk rating of coal mine safety hidden dangers is simply superposition of hidden dangers, risk evaluation of hidden dangers does not consider time factor, so it cannot achieve purpose of real-time early warning, nor reflect state of hidden dangers at different times. Moreover, risk evaluation is not closely integrated with closed-loop management process of hidden dangers identification, and it cannot reflect dynamic changes of risks. For the above problems, the life cycle of coal mine safety hidden dangers was analyzed, including its formation, development and evolved into an accident, the single hidden dangers risk and regional hidden dangers risk were comprehensively evaluated combing with the process of hidden dangers identification and warning management, and corresponding emergency treatment mechanism was established. Using evaluating-point approach, the single hidden dangers risk was evaluated from the difficulty of identification, vulnerability and controllability, the duration of hidden dangers rectification is included in the hidden dangers risk evaluation, so as to reflect hidden dangers status at different times in real time, which is more in line with the development law of hidden dangers. According to restrictive relationship between identification and management ability and dynamic dominant hidden dangers, the regional hidden dangers risk was evaluated comprehensively, on the basis of risk value and characteristics of region, different early warning levels can be set to realize comprehensive early warning of regional hidden dangers. Considering factors of hidden dangers identification and management ability in the regional hidden dangers risk evaluation, can more accurately reflect the risk degree and risk trend of regional hidden dangers.
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