Coupling analysis of landslide risk in open-pit mines integrating N-K model and BN

Due to the interaction and superposition effect, a coupling state is formed between different risks, which becomes the fuse of major accidents. In order to analyze the coupling relationship between the risk of open-pit mine landslide accidents, a composite analysis method combining the N-K model and Bayesian network (BN) model is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing 51 open-pit mine landslide accident cases, the direct causes of the accidents are classified and summarized, and the human factors, environmental factors, mining equipment factors, management factors and risk coupling types are defined. Secondly, the N-K model is constructed to explore the coupling relationship and coupling mechanism between risk factors. Finally, according to the calculation results of the N-K model, it is integrated into the BN model for forward and reverse reasoning analysis and risk factor sensitivity research. The results show that the risk coupling type with the highest probability of open-pit mine landslide accidents is "human-ring-pipe" coupling, with a probability of 37.32%. The risk coupling value of "human-environment-machine-management" was the highest, about 0.26, and the incidence rate was 29.60%. We should take environmental risk factors and management risk factors as the starting point to systematically control the risk of open-pit mine landslides, prevent the synergy and chain effect between risk factors, and cut off the coupling relationship between risk factors as much as possible, so as to reduce the incidence of open-pit mine landslide accidents. The results of this study have a guiding role in the construction of the dual prevention mechanism of risk hierarchical control and hidden danger investigation and management of open-pit mines.