In order to predict and analyze mining subsidence in Longdong Coal Mine, prediction model of main cross section mining subsidence was established by use of probability integration method, and distribution law of surface subsidence deformation of main cross section was predicted in combination with prediction parameters of coal mine surface subsidence. According to the prediction model of subsidence deformation of any point in goaf, subsidence, inclination, horizontal deformation value at any point in goaf were calculated by use of VB program, then damage degree of mining subsidence land was classified. The results show that subsidence deformation shape of the goaf surface is "bowl", shape of basin center is flat, subsidence value decreases gradually from the basin center to basin edge, moderate damage land area is 13.1 hm2, accounting for 57.9% of total subsidence area.